Language models (mostly) know what they know

We study whether language models can evaluate the validity of their own claims and predict which questions they will be able to answer correctly. We first show that larger models are well-calibrated on diverse multiple choice and true/false questions when they are provided in the right format. Thus we can approach self-evaluation on open-ended sampling tasks by asking models to first propose answers, and then to evaluate the probability "P(True)" that their answers are correct. We find encouraging performance, calibration, and scaling for P(True) on a diverse array of tasks. Performance at self-evaluation further improves when we allow models to consider many of their own samples before predicting the validity of one specific possibility. Next, we investigate whether models can be trained to predict "P(IK)", the probability that "I know" the answer to a question, without reference to any particular proposed answer. Models perform well at predicting P(IK) and partially generalize across tasks, though they struggle with calibration of P(IK) on new tasks. The predicted P(IK) probabilities also increase appropriately in the presence of relevant source materials in the context, and in the presence of hints towards the solution of mathematical word problems. We hope these observations lay the groundwork for training more honest models, and for investigating how honesty generalizes to cases where models are trained on objectives other than the imitation of human writing.

We gave Claude plain-language specifications for eight quantum circuits, along with an automated evaluator to check and score its designs. Working largely on its own, Claude improved on the best published circuits, in some cases by an order of magnitude or more, which could bring practical quantum computers closer than previously anticipated.

The decades-old mystery of the origins of one of the most popular cryptographic standards has been explained.

How will AI reshape the economy in the years ahead? What is the core source of disagreement about AI's future impact on the economy? This note presents new survey evidence on these questions.